2026 draft season · QB
Hurts versus Burrow is the classic shape clash at quarterback: the tush-push rushing touchdowns against the pure passing volume. Burrow throws more, to better receivers, in an offense that has to throw to win; Hurts contributes a weekly rushing and goal-line element that Burrow has never had, and plays behind the better line with the better run game around him. Our value-over-replacement board currently favors Hurts on the strength of that rushing baseline — the live order is on the quarterback rankings page, with the figures behind it subscriber-only at $5/month or $40/year.
Hurts's week has a built-in element that does not depend on his receivers: goal-line carries and scrambles that have made him one of the most reliable touchdown producers at the position regardless of how the passing game looks.
Burrow's week is entirely a passing week, which makes it larger when Cincinnati chases a game — and quieter when they lead comfortably. His receiver trio is the best argument for him: elite targets raise a passer's range more than scheme does.
Hurts's risk is a healthy lead: Philadelphia winning comfortably by running removes passing volume late. Burrow's risk is his offensive line and a defense that keeps forcing shootouts — the second of those is actually a fantasy feature, not a bug.
Neither needs to be an early pick in a one-quarterback league. This is a choice between two mid-round passers with different failure modes, and value over replacement — not raw projected points — is what tells you whether either is worth the pick over the last rounds' alternatives.
This page is deliberately qualitative: no projected points, ranks or value-over-replacement figures appear here. Subscribers see the full QB board, every scoring format and the weekly refresh — $5/month or $40/year.
Our value-over-replacement board currently favors Hurts because rushing production is the more stable weekly input. The live order between them appears on the quarterback rankings page.
Yes — Burrow's biggest weeks come when Cincinnati trails and throws constantly, so he is the better best-case pick. Hurts is the steadier weekly case.
Projected points and value-over-replacement figures are subscriber-only, included at $5/month or $40/year with every format and weekly board.