Is regression always negative?
No. Regression just means moving back toward a normal level, so it can help players who have been unlucky as much as it can slow down players who have been unusually good.
Regression
Regression is when a player's stats move back toward their normal level after an unusually good or bad stretch.
In fantasy football, regression means a player's numbers drift back toward what is typical for them after a run of unusual results. A wide receiver who caught ten touchdowns on an unusually high share of his team's throws probably will not keep that pace, because very few players sustain it. The same idea works in reverse: a running back who fumbled three times in two games or watched several touchdowns get vultured at the goal line may simply have had bad luck.
Managers use regression to spot buy-low and sell-high opportunities. If a player's underlying numbers, like targets, carries, or yards per route run, stay steady while his fantasy points crash, the points often come back. If the points are high but the underlying work is shrinking, the good times may not last. Regression does not happen on a schedule, though, so a player can stay hot or cold far longer than managers expect.
Common questions
How do fantasy managers use regression?
They compare a player's fantasy points to his role stats like targets, carries, and snaps. If the two disagree, managers bet the points will move to match the role, which guides trades, waiver adds, and lineup calls.
Related terms
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