Free tool · derived estimates
Fantasy football prop probabilities, derived from our projection model
We take our weekly projection for each of the top 50 players by projected PPR points, round it to a market-style line, and compute the probability of clearing that line under a single-week distribution whose spread is adjusted by position — a quarterback's passing yards vary far less week to week than a tight end's receiving yards. The result is our read on each player's week, not a price from a sportsbook.
Slate
2025 week 18 — the requested 2026 week 1 slate is not yet in the projection feed, so this board shows the most recent complete slate and says so. Generated 2026-08-31 · model props-v2.
Every probability here is a derived estimate from our projection model. Lines are our own projections rounded to whole/half increments; no sportsbook odds are ingested. Not betting advice.
Strongest derived probability per player
| Player | Pos | Matchup | Prop | Our projection | P(clear) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyren Williams | RB | LAR vs ARI | Over 2 receptionsClear lean | 2.2 | 62.9% |
| Jonathan Taylor | RB | IND vs HOU | Over 1.5 receptionsClear lean | 1.6 | 61.4% |
| James Cook | RB | BUF vs NYJ | Over 10 receiving yardsClear lean | 12.5 | 60.4% |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | ARI vs LAR | Over 10 rushing yardsClear lean | 12.5 | 59.5% |
| George Pickens | WR | DAL vs NYG | Over 4.5 receptionsClear lean | 4.6 | 59.3% |
| Derrick Henry | RB | BAL vs PIT | Over 1 receptionsClear lean | 1.0 | 59.3% |
| Michael Wilson | WR | ARI vs LAR | Over 5 receptionsClear lean | 5.2 | 58.9% |
| Chris Oladokun | QB | KC vs LV | Over 10 rushing yardsClear lean | 12.1 | 58.6% |
| Jameson Williams | WR | DET vs CHI | Over 4 receptionsClear lean | 4.0 | 58.6% |
| Quinn Ewers | QB | MIA vs NE | Over 10 rushing yardsClear lean | 11.9 | 58.2% |
| Travis Etienne | RB | JAX vs TEN | Over 2.5 receptionsClear lean | 2.4 | 58.1% |
| Bijan Robinson | RB | ATL vs NO | Over 4.5 receptionsClear lean | 4.7 | 57.8% |
| Aaron Rodgers | QB | PIT vs BAL | Over 5 rushing yardsClear lean | 5.5 | 57.5% |
| CeeDee Lamb | WR | DAL vs NYG | Over 5.5 receptionsClear lean | 5.6 | 57.5% |
| RJ Harvey | RB | DEN vs LAC | Over 3 receptionsClear lean | 2.9 | 57.3% |
| Sam Darnold | QB | SEA vs SF | Over 10 rushing yardsClear lean | 11.6 | 57.2% |
| Matthew Stafford | QB | LAR vs ARI | Over 5 rushing yardsClear lean | 5.5 | 57.1% |
| Ashton Jeanty | RB | LV vs KC | Over 4.5 receptionsClear lean | 4.6 | 56.9% |
| Bucky Irving | RB | TB vs CAR | Over 3 receptionsClear lean | 2.9 | 56.8% |
| Clayton Tune | QB | GB vs MIN | Over 10 rushing yardsClear lean | 11.1 | 55.8% |
| Mitchell Trubisky | QB | BUF vs NYJ | Over 15 rushing yardsClear lean | 16.9 | 55.7% |
| Riley Leonard | QB | IND vs HOU | Over 15 rushing yardsClear lean | 16.9 | 55.6% |
| Puka Nacua | WR | LAR vs ARI | Over 7 receptionsClear lean | 7.0 | 55.0% |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | SEA vs SF | Over 7 receptionsSlight lean | 7.0 | 54.8% |
| Drake London | WR | ATL vs NO | Over 5 receptionsSlight lean | 4.8 | 54.6% |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | DET vs CHI | Over 4 receptionsSlight lean | 3.8 | 54.5% |
| Ja'Marr Chase | WR | CIN vs CLE | Over 6.5 receptionsSlight lean | 6.3 | 53.8% |
| Trey McBride | TE | ARI vs LAR | Over 7.5 receptionsSlight lean | 7.4 | 53.8% |
| Trey Lance | QB | LAC vs DEN | Over 15.5 fantasy points (PPR)Slight lean | 15.7 | 53.6% |
| Josh Johnson | QB | WAS vs PHI | Over 15.5 fantasy points (PPR)Slight lean | 15.7 | 53.6% |
| Christian McCaffrey | RB | SF vs SEA | Over 5 receptionsSlight lean | 4.8 | 53.4% |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR | DET vs CHI | Over 6 receptionsSlight lean | 5.8 | 53.1% |
| Kirk Cousins | QB | ATL vs NO | Over 16.5 fantasy points (PPR)Slight lean | 16.6 | 53.0% |
| Shedeur Sanders | QB | CLE vs CIN | Over 19.5 fantasy points (PPR)Slight lean | 19.7 | 52.9% |
| C.J. Stroud | QB | HOU vs IND | Over 18.5 fantasy points (PPR)Slight lean | 18.7 | 52.9% |
| Baker Mayfield | QB | TB vs CAR | Over 21 fantasy points (PPR)Slight lean | 21.2 | 52.7% |
| Jared Goff | QB | DET vs CHI | Over 21 fantasy points (PPR)Slight lean | 21.2 | 52.7% |
| Tyler Shough | QB | NO vs ATL | Over 20.5 fantasy points (PPR)Slight lean | 20.7 | 52.5% |
| Jaxson Dart | QB | NYG vs DAL | Over 24 fantasy points (PPR)Slight lean | 24.3 | 52.4% |
| Caleb Williams | QB | CHI vs DET | Over 18.5 fantasy points (PPR)Slight lean | 18.6 | 52.4% |
| Lamar Jackson | QB | BAL vs PIT | Over 25 rushing yardsSlight lean | 26.0 | 52.3% |
| Bryce Young | QB | CAR vs TB | Over 19 fantasy points (PPR)Slight lean | 19.1 | 52.3% |
| Trevor Lawrence | QB | JAX vs TEN | Over 23.5 fantasy points (PPR)Slight lean | 23.7 | 52.3% |
| Brock Purdy | QB | SF vs SEA | Over 21.5 fantasy points (PPR)Slight lean | 21.6 | 52.0% |
| Bo Nix | QB | DEN vs LAC | Over 25 rushing yardsSlight lean | 25.8 | 52.0% |
| J.J. McCarthy | QB | MIN vs GB | Over 18.5 fantasy points (PPR)Slight lean | 18.4 | 51.8% |
| Dak Prescott | QB | DAL vs NYG | Over 22.5 fantasy points (PPR)Slight lean | 22.5 | 51.7% |
| Joe Burrow | QB | CIN vs CLE | Over 20.5 fantasy points (PPR)Slight lean | 20.4 | 51.5% |
| Tanner McKee | QB | PHI vs WAS | Over 19 fantasy points (PPR)Slight lean | 18.8 | 51.2% |
| Drake Maye | QB | NE vs MIA | Over 22.5 fantasy points (PPR)Slight lean | 22.3 | 51.0% |
How these numbers are derived
1 · Start from the weekly projection
Each player's projected yards, receptions, touchdowns and PPR points for the slate, from the same projection feed behind our rankings.
2 · Set the line from our own number
Yards round to the nearest 5; receptions and touchdowns to the nearest half. The line is our projection made tradable — we never move it toward a bookmaker's price, because we do not read one.
3 · Apply position-adjusted dispersion
The probability of clearing the line comes from a single-week distribution whose spread was measured per position and stat on five completed seasons (2021–2025): a projected 250-yard passer clears 250 far more often than a projected 50-yard tight end clears 50. Touchdowns are treated as counts, not continuous numbers, because a 0.6-TD projection is not "most of a touchdown".
What this is not
- It is not betting advice and contains no sportsbook price. A probability without a market price has no edge calculation, and we present none.
- The dispersion model is symmetric around our projection. Real single-week distributions have fatter tails, so probabilities near the extremes should be read as leans, not certainties.
- Late injury news or a weather move can invalidate a slate's projections faster than the board republishes.